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Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage  
ever provided for a presidential election.

Libertarians Favor Obama and Other Looks at Election 2008

Saturday, July 05, 2008

Libertarian voters make up 4% of the nation’s likely voters and they  
favor Barack Obama over John McCain by a 53% to 38% margin. Three  
percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate and 5% are not sure.  
These results, from an analysis of 15,000 Likely Voter interviews  
conducted by Rasmussen Reports, challenges the conventional wisdom  
which assumes that strong support for a Libertarian candidate would  
hurt John McCain.

In June, Rasmussen Reports asked 15,000 Likely Voters if they were  
fiscally conservative, moderate, or liberal and if they were socially  
conservative, moderate, or liberal. This created a total of 16  
possible combinations (not sure was a fourth option for both  
questions). However, 87% of voters fit into one of seven combinations.  
Libertarians, defined as fiscally conservative and socially liberal,  
are the smallest of these seven combinations.

The largest group, representing 24% of the nation’s voters, are both  
fiscally and socially conservative. Demographically, these voters  
generally reflect the population at large except that 85% are White  
and just 5% African-American. Sixty-seven percent (67%) are  
Republicans and McCain leads Obama 82% to 13% among these voters.

The next biggest block of voters, representing 20% of all voters, are  
both fiscally and socially moderate. Forty-nine percent (49%) of these  
voters are Democrats and 33% are not affiliated with either major  
party. They are a bit less likely than the population at large to have  
completed college but demographically reflect the nation in most ways.  
Obama leads among these voters 59% to 30%.

Fifteen percent (15%) of all voters are fiscally moderate and socially  
liberal. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of these voters are women and they  
are more likely than most voters to have completed college and to have  
attended graduate school. They favor Obama by an 80% to 13% margin.

Two groups of voters each include 10% of the voting population—those  
who are fiscally conservative and socially moderate along with those  
who are fiscally moderate and socially conservative. Among the first  
group, McCain leads 67% to 25%. Among the latter, McCain’s advantage  
is smaller, 51% to 40%.

Nine percent (9%) of voters are both socially and fiscally liberal.  
Not surprisingly, Obama dominates among this segment of the electorate  
and leads McCain by a 91% to 6% margin. These voters tend to have  
somewhat higher incomes (25% earn at least $100,000 a year) and are a  
bit younger than the population at large. Fifty-seven percent (57%)  
are women.

Looked at from a different perspective, 25% of Obama’s support comes  
from voters who are fiscally moderate and socially liberal. Twenty- 
four percent (24%) are both fiscally and socially moderate while 17%  
are fiscally and socially liberal. No other group provides more than  
8% of Obama’s support.

Forty-five percent (45%) of McCain supporters are both fiscally and  
socially conservative, 15% are fiscally conservative and socially  
moderate, 14% are both fiscally and socially moderate, and 12% are  
fiscally moderate and socially conservative.

All data in this survey is based upon interviews with 15,000 Likely  
Voters as part of the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking  
Poll. Premium Members can review crosstabs for the Obama-McCain  
numbers results. Additional crosstabs are available here and here.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the  
collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling  
information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008  
offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided  
for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an  
independent pollster for more than a decade.

The survey was conducted from June 1-15, 2008 and the overall sample  
showed Obama leading 49% to 44% (with leaners). The theoretical margin  
of sampling error is smaller than +/- one percentage point for the  
full sample. Subsets have larger measures of sampling error. For the  
smallest group mentioned in the article, Libertarian voters, the  
margin of sampling error is +/- four percentage points with a 95%  
level of confidence.

Fiscal
Social
Obama
McCain
Con-Con
62%
67%
13%
82%
Mod-Mod
43%
62%
59%
30%
Mod-Lib
33%
51%
80%
13%
Con-Mod
26%
30%
25%
67%
Mod-Con
22%
28%
40%
51%
Lib-Lib
79%
30%
91%
6%